According to the WorldACD Weekly Air Cargo Trends 2025 – Week 23 (June 2–8), released on June 13, the air cargo market is witnessing significant fluctuations, especially on the China–US route, which has seen a sharp decline, directly affecting global volumes and freight rates.
Sharp drop in volumes & rates on the China–US route
Flown chargeable weight from China and Hong Kong to the US fell by 10% week-on-week (WoW) in Week 23, and dropped by 19% compared to the same period last year (YoY). Spot rates also decreased by 5% WoW and 17% YoY.
This significant downturn followed a brief recovery in late May, when the US temporarily suspended new import tariffs on goods from China and Hong Kong. This indicates that the rebound was short-term, mostly driven by the clearing of delayed shipments after the temporary suspension of tariffs.
Global impact: General downward trend
The decline on the CN/HK–US route was the main driver of the 3% drop in global cargo volumes in Week 23; YoY, the drop was 2%.
Cargo volumes from China declined by 7% WoW, particularly at southern airports – major hubs for e-commerce goods.
The Asia-Pacific region saw a 4% WoW decrease.
Regional volatility due to holidays & policy shifts
Southeast Asia: Malaysia fell by 14%, Indonesia by 10%, due to the Eid Al-Adha holiday (June 5–8).
South Korea: Down 6% due to Memorial Day (June 6).
The China–Europe route also declines
Cargo volume from mainland China to Europe dropped by 5% WoW.
Meanwhile, volume from Hong Kong to Europe rose slightly by 2% WoW.
However, exports from South Korea, Malaysia, and Indonesia to Europe continued to decline significantly, down 16%, 26%, and 24% respectively, mainly due to regional holidays.
Other regional updates
European exports decreased by 4% WoW due to the Pentecost holiday (June 8–9).
The Middle East & South Asia (MESA) region declined by 8%, with intra-regional flows down 26% and exports to Africa down 17%.
North America was a bright spot, with volumes rising by 8% WoW, recovering after the Memorial Day holiday (May 26).
Stable rates: slight increase
Global average rates (including spot and contract) rose by 1% WoW to USD 2.44/kg, equal to the same period last year.
Global spot rates increased by 2% WoW to USD 2.63/kg, up 1% YoY.
Regional highlights:
MESA: Spot rates dropped by 16% YoY.
Hong Kong → US: Spot rates plunged 12% WoW due to the US revision of its “de minimis” policy – low-value shipments have been subject to new tariffs since May 2, resulting in higher handling costs and increased freight rates.
Interpretation & outlook
The late May rebound on the China–US route was driven by temporary tariff relief but did not reflect true demand recovery.
The Eid and Memorial Day holiday waves continued to put downward pressure on many Asian routes.
The impact of the “de minimis” policy and import duties is pushing rates up on certain lanes while suppressing e-commerce volume.
However, North America’s strong rebound signals potential growth in domestic and cross-border markets.
Conclusion & strategic recommendations
WorldACD’s Week 23 report reveals a highly volatile air cargo market, heavily influenced by trade policies, global holidays, and shifting e-commerce demand. Logistics companies, airlines, and forwarders should take note:
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Closely monitor the China–US and Hong Kong → US lanes, especially news related to the “de minimis” policy.
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Anticipate volume fluctuations during major holidays in the Asia-Pacific region.
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Prioritize the recovering North American lane and consider market diversification.
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Adjust freight rates and contract terms flexibly to reflect pricing pressure in regions like MESA and Hong Kong.
𝐌.𝐓.𝐋 – 𝐘𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐧𝐞𝐫 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐠𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐬𝐮𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬
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